Touching the Awesome!

I’m not going to pretend to be a seasoned pro that knows everything about how to play, draft, or talk Fantasy Hoops.

But today, I’m going to do my best to layout some early rankings and predictions on who will be available where, as well as some basic theory behind the game itself.

Theory
First question:
Which categories will be used in your league?

This is the most important ideal to stand by. If you’re the commish, and you use too many, and you’ll end up canceling out a lot of the categories; should you use too few, nothing matters anymore – it becomes a yawn fest.

Some standards to follow and to do your research by would be:
Points scored
Rebounds
Blocks
Steals
3-pointers
Assists
Field goal percentage
Free-throw percentage

Okay, now you know your league settings and you’re ready to go, right? Let’s do this then … wait, wait, wait, wait, wait! Where you gonna draft? I mean, what is your draft position!??! While it’s safe to do general research before knowing your draft position, I feel it is always best to go into things with a strategy, knowing who you’ll be targeting and who you value over other people at these said draft intervals.

(Early) Rankings
TOP TIER (1-15)
Kevin Durant – SF
Chris Paul – PG
LeBron James – SF
Dirk Nowitzki – PF
Kobe Bryant – SG
Deron Williams – PG
Danny Granger – SF
Dwight Howard – C
Pau Gasol – PF/C
Stephen Curry – SG/PG
Dwayne Wade – SG
Carmelo Anthony – SF
Steve Nash – PG
Gerald Wallace – SF/PF
Tyreke Evans – PG/SG

Some guys that you can find on the cusp of the top tier would be: Jason Kidd, Brook Lopez, Josh Smith, Brandon Roy, Amare Stoudemire. Taking a look at Amare’s team, I’d be prepared to move him up a bit higher in this list as D’Antoni’s teams can really boost stats for players (see: David Lee).

From here on, let’s do a little bit of a “buy”, “sell”, or stay even with them in regards to their listed ranking…

MID TIER (21-35)
David Lee – SELL!
* GS Warriors are in flux, he’ll be the big guy and board, but I’d be surprised if he’s a 20/10 guy again. Monta and Steph Curry will be using too many shots for him to really assert his “game” (or lack thereof).
Rajon Rondo – BUY!
* Rajon may have left Team USA prematurely, but he strikes me as the kind of player that uses that sort of “rejection” and puts it to good use. Look for him to put on a show and carry the Celtics.
Chris Bosh – even…
* One of the “Big 3” is going to under-produce, there just aren’t enough possessions in a game. I’m picking Bosh to be that guy. He may get some boards and assists, but his points will dip.
Monta Ellis – SELL!
* If my David Lee prediction proves to be false, it’s because Monta Ellis is being shown the door. Okay, Monta Ellis may be shown the door anyways this season. (IMO).
Russell Westbrook – BUY!
* After a great Team USA showing, lookout for Mr. Westbrook.
Joe Johnson – SELL!
* Sure his contract was big, but his delivery in the playoffs was sub-par. I’m taking it as a sign of decline from Joe.
Andre Iguodala – SELL!
* Didn’t they draft Evan Turner?
Chauncey Billups – SELL!
* Old man playing too much ball in the summer months=old man playing too many minutes over the course of the season.
Stephen Jackson – SELL!
* He plays for Charlotte, enough said.
Al Jefferson – BUY!
* Al will tear it up under the hoop this year. When this train gets going, get out of the way!
Tim Duncan – even…
* Father Time, as I like to call him, will produce, but at another year below his career averages. Keep an eye on his FT% should you choose to select him.
Carlos Boozer – BUY!
* I’ve always been a Boozer-Believer, and I believe he will have a hay-day in Chicago with DRose.
Al Horford – SELL!
* I guess I’m just not too high on the Atlanta Hawks and their new head coaching choices.
Paul Pierce – even…
* Paul is aging, the Celtics are aging, don’t draft them too high in your leagues!
Darren Collison – BUY!
* Darren Collison will have a phenomenal year alongside Danny Granger. I’d push him to the top in PG’s taken in the second round of your drafts (aside from the peeps in the list previous).

Some good value to be had just outside of this group in: Zach Randolph, Antawn Jamison, Andrea Bargnani, Aaron Brooks, and Marc Gasol. Take a look at that group, a couple of them are slated to be “the guy” on their team. Antawn Jamison, who else will be taking the load for the Cavs? Bargnani is setup to take on the nay-sayers in regards to his number one draft ranking. Aaron Brooks could end up playing 40+ a night for that Rockets team, which isn’t a bad thing.

Spotlight on 3

Let’s take a step back from the player rankings and look at a few guys that could really shine this year (meaning, you should keep an eye out for them!).

Brandon Jennings: surrounding an explosive 2nd year guy with savvy veterans is never a bad idea. Will he have to score 55 points in many games this year? No. And while his scoring could take a dip, look for his other intangibles to rise up – i.e. assists, steals. Jennings is currently hovering around #60 in predraft rankings, putting him in the possible 4th-5th round come draft time.

Paul Millsap: Paul is in an interesting situation. The national media seems to have pegged him as the backup PF for the Utah Jazz. Problem is, Al Jefferson will likely be the starting center for the Jazz all season long (can you really picture Mehmet Okur storming back into a starting role on this team?), this would leave the starting PF spot to Mr. Millsap. His scoring will remain to be up and down, but should you need rebounds, blocks, or FG%, consider taking Paul Millsap around the 5th-6th rounds.

DeMar DeRozan: DeMar had a huge summer league this year putting up 21 ppg in 26 minutes to go along with 58% FG shooting and 40% 3PT FG’s. Will it be the DeMar and Bargnani show in Toronto? Why not? What else are they going to do? While currently not in the top 150 of several sites, stash him away for later in your leagues draft.

Part II: Fantasy Schmantasy – coming soon …